The Global Forecast Monitor

This week in the Middle East, Israel carried out unilateral strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities and killed top Iranian military officials, leading to Iranian retaliation with drone strikes against Israel. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. and China both confirmed they reached a trade deal framework involving a resumption of rare earth elements exports and a reduction in tariffs, while newly elected South Korean President Lee Jae-myung conducted diplomatic outreach to the U.S. and China. In Ukraine, Russia launched some of the most extensive missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian cities since the start of the war, while the European Commission proposed a new round of sanctions against Moscow. In the U.S., the National Guard and Marines were deployed to Los Angeles amid ongoing protests over an immigration crackdown.

This week, Ukraine conducted multiple sabotage operations across Russia, including attacks on Russia’s strategic bomber fleet and infrastructure, while representatives from both countries agreed on a prisoner exchange. In the Indo-Pacific, China’s slow resumption of rare earth elements exports has led industries to warn of potential shutdowns. U.S.-China trade negotiations continued, and the U.S. doubled tariffs on global steel and aluminum imports. In the Middle East, Iran rejected U.S. terms for a nuclear deal, while Russian President Vladimir Putin offered to assist in negotiations during a phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump.

This week, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that there was no legal basis under the International Economic Emergency Powers Act for U.S. President Donald Trump to impose global tariffs, complicating the U.S.’s trade negotiations. In the Indo-Pacific, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced of the U.S. would begin revoking Chinese student visas, while Trump ordered the suspension of exports of jet engines and semiconductors to China. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Russia prepared for an offensive in Sumy, while Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov proposed another meeting between Russian and Ukrainian officials on June 2. In the Middle East, efforts at another Gaza ceasefire stalled, while the U.S. and Iran continued their nuclear negotiations over Iran’s nuclear enrichment program.